ATP Cincinnati – Khachanov vs Carreno Busta

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Khachanov vs Carreno-Busta (Approx 02:30am AEST)

Now that we know a little more about the court speed being on the faster side in New York, this looks to be a decent match-up for Karen Khachanov. In the past I have had more of a leaning toward Khachanov on the faster hardcourt, as I feel it is comfortable for him. It is difficult to get a real gauge on why that may be the case, however he does appear to be a better player when he is playing on impulse and quick decision making. He enjoys rallies with significant pace on the ball, as we saw in his 5 set battle with Nick Kyrgios at the Australian Open. The key to his game is limiting unforced errors in key moments. If he can find a rhythm on his serve, it goes a long way to victory for the Russian.

I don’t think these conditions in New York are quite as suited to Pablo Carreno-Busta than what we have seen in recent years. He had a more comfortable hardcourt match-up in Dusan Lajovic, however he trailed by a break early, faced break points in 4 separate service games, and averaged 7.3 points per service game for the match. It wasn’t as convincing as the scoreboard suggested, and I think the significant rise in opponent quality on hardcourt will be evident today.

I have been waiting for everything the click for Khachanov, and his round 1 win over Bublik was a great start. No lapses, having not faced a break point, and pushing Bublik regularly on serve was a great sign. If he can continue to limit his unforced errors, then he should progress today. I am happy to back him at the head to head price for 1.5 units.

Suggested Bet

1.5 units Khachanov to defeat Carreno-Busta at $1.71 at Unibet (Currently $1.74 at Betfair minus commission at time of writing)



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