I said after the victory of Pliskova over Martic that I would be steering clear of Pliskova matches for a little while, however value has become apparent again today.
Whilst in previous matches I have seen value in the game handicap or the head to head, I think there is value to be found in both selections here.
I wrote about Ana Bogdan in preparation for her round 2 match against Lesia Tsurenko, which did not eventuate due to Tsurenko withdrawing with a rib issue. The same sentiments apply for Bogdan today, however even with the lopsided head to head advantage favouring Pliskova, I do feel the way her backhand will match up with the left handed forehand of the Czech will work in her favour.
The last two meetings between these two players have been close, and have come down to fine margins. They have been the best two performances from Bogdan in the head to head, and one of those came on clay in 2018. On that day, Bogdan led 6-3 2-0, however late in set two was broken from *5-6 40/15, and Pliskova ran away with the third set. The improved nature of each performance (Bogdan took set two 6-1 and led 3-1 in set 3 in Miami in 2019) suggests the ability is there to get the job done, however the added confidence in Bogdan’s game yesterday, and the dominant round 1 performance, leads me to side with her today.
Whilst Pliskova did defeat Martic, the Croatian was certainly hampered in the second set. As a result of that win perhaps being overrated a touch, the value presents on Bogdan today. I will play this as 2 units on the +3.5 game handicap at plus money, and 1 unit on the head to head.
Stay tuned as I may have a couple of plays from Lexington later.