Bellis vs Teichmann (Approx 01:00am AEST)
The victories of Teichmann on the surface look to have flattered her on the scoreboard this week in my opinion. When you consider that Teichmann has won 11 of 15 break points on the serves of Kalinskaya and Putintseva, well above her average break point conversion rate, you would expect a regression back towards the average today. With the Swiss coming up against Bellis, who has looked incredibly impressive through the first two rounds, things will be far tougher for her today.
I was initially reluctant to make any plays on Bellis at the start of the week given such little tennis has been played, and she is still technically finding her way off an extended injury layoff. That being said, she has been absolutely dominant through her wins against Di Lorenzo and Pegula on her way through to the quarter finals. She doesn’t have any significant weakness, outside of being vulnerable to power hitters at times. That won’t be too much of an issue today for Bellis, with Teichmann unable to hit through the American regularly in my opinion.
This is a significant step up in opponent for Teichmann on hardcourt. I am happy to play Bellis to win and cover the -3.5 game handicap today for 2 units. She should be too good today.
2 units Bellis -3.5 games vs Teichmann at $1.83 at Bet365
Williams vs Rogers (Approx 02:30am AEST)
“I didn’t come here to win for the first time in my career. I just came here to get some matches and see what happens.”
That was a quote from Serena Williams after her win over her sister Venus Williams 3-6 6-3 6-4 in 2 hours and 20 minutes yesterday. She was able to put 67% of first serves into play, coming from a set down for the second match running. Coming off no competitive tennis since the Australian Open and Fed Cup, I think Serena is too short against a player that is going to keep her moving and be able to dictate at times throughout the match in Shelby Rogers.
Rogers has done a fantastic job of making it through to the quarter final, defeating Misaki Doi and Leylah Fernandez. The Fernandez win was particularly impressive considering Rogers was only able to get 40% of her first serves into play, a crucial part of her overall game. To be able to get the job done without her key weapon regularly in play against a player such as Fernandez is a really good sign for Rogers, who will need to be near her best to challenge one of the best players of all time today.
I think there is value in Rogers over the $3.50 mark given the circumstances. We know this isn’t Williams’ grand final. If Rogers can lift her first serve percentage, and keep Williams regularly on the back foot and on the move, the last two days of tennis may catch up with Serena coming off such a long layoff. The warm, humid conditions will add a layer of complexity to this match as well.
There are a couple of ways to play this match. I am going to make a 2 unit selection on Rogers to win. Other alternatives include Rogers to win the first set, and the total games over 20.5. I would prefer the total at 20, however with that not widely available, I will settle for the head to head play for 2 units.
2 units Rogers to defeat Williams at $4.20 at Topsport