A win (Mertens), a walkover (Bogdan) and a loss (Martic) for a positive result on the previews from August 12. It was a lot of fun to jump on the live stream for the entirety of the Mertens match and be able to develop a pretty good read on the match overall.
Onto today, where there is one selection from Prague that stands out in my opinion.
Siegemund vs Sorribes-Tormo (Approx 08:00pm AEST)
The price or Siegemund to progress today is great value in my opinion.
Part of what makes Sara Sorribes Tormo so difficult as an opponent on clay is the fact that she forces you to think a lot about your own game. She will do all that she can to ensure your Plan A is neutralised on the surface, and at that point, it is in your best interests to have a Plan B, and preferably a Plan C and D as well.
SST did a fantastic job of frustrating Barbora Strycova in round 1, coming back from a 0-5 deficit in the first set, winning 7-6 6-1. She was able to carry the momentum of the first set comeback into set two, winning in just over two hours. She was able to get 78.8% of her first serves into play, which is her 8th best first serve percentage over her last 200 matches. It is important and worth noting, as she only won 25% of points behind her second serve for the match.
Laura Siegemund overcame a slow start as well in her first round, defeating Mayar Sherif 4-6 6-0 6-1 in a match that was played over two days. She won 66% of points on both her first and second serves, and I was really impressed with her ability to start strongly yesterday, with play resuming at 4-6 4-0. Her form around defeating Begu last week and losing to Kontaveit in three sets is also looking solid, so there looks to be a lot of positives about Siegemund heading into today.
Now to address, and debunk, what may be the elephant in the room regarding this match-up. It is hard to not be drawn to their only past head to head meeting, held in Bol last year. On that day, Tormo won 6-1 6-0. Yep, Siegemund won one game.
When you look back over the match and the situation though, to me this screams of Siegemund running out of gas at the end of a long claycourt stretch. Still working her way back into the Top 100 at that stage, Siegemund was playing her fifth consecutive week of competitive tennis:
Madrid – Lost to Mladenovic (2 matches)
W100 Trnava – Lost to Pera (3 matches, and as a result of the loss could attend qualifying in Strasbourg)
Strasbourg – Lost to Sabalenka (4 matches)
Roland Garros – Lost to Bencic (2 matches)
Siegemund then attended the Bol tournament, and Tormo was able to catch Siegemund in her fifth consecutive week of tennis, coming off a near 3-hour three set match the previous day. If you don’t have your legs underneath you when playing Tormo, you are going to have a torrid time. Siegemund took four weeks off after the tournament in Bol.
I think the script will be flipped today. Siegemund is fresh, and she has the tools, variety, and smarts to challenge the game of Tormo significantly. Combine the past head to head weighing on the minds of bettors, and the high first serve percentage from Tormo vs Strycova that will be hard to sustain, and we have what looks to be a value price on Siegemund.
I am happy to make this a 3 unit selection.
3 units Siegemund to defeat Tormo at $1.88 at Topsport