After a nice day yesterday with the previews, here is one to kick off Sunday.
Paar vs Kung (Approx 07:00pm AEST)
With such little tennis since the resumption of the tour, sometimes a little too much can be read into players that have form around a common opponent. This looks to be on display in Prague today as Paar and Kung do battle.
The opponent in common? That would be Ludmilla Samsonova.
Palermo – August 4 – Samsonova defeated Paar 6-2 7-6(9)
Prague – August 8 – Kung defeated Samsonova 6-2 6-2
On the surface that looks to heavily favour Kung on the recent form, however there are many factors that need to be taken into consideration upon digging a little deeper into the form.
The first? The situational difficulty faced by Paar when she came up against Samsonova. Paar came off a late night 3-set battle against Bolsova Zadionov, and was back on court less than 18 hours. She was incredibly gallant in that defeat as well, hanging tough in the second set against-the-odds. It is also worth mentioning that Paar earned double the amount of break point opportunities, however was unable to convert.
The second? The situational difficulty faced by Samsonova when she came up against Kung. Samsonova was coming off a week of qualifying in Palermo, culminating in a 3-set loss to Petra Martic in the final 16. Samsonova was unable to fire off the quick back-up in Prague, struggling to find her range after five matches last week. Her cause wasn’t helped by only getting 46% of first serves into play, and Kung was able to take advantage.
Between the form around the Samsonova win, and Kung’s run to the final in Thailand on hardcourt shortly before the COVID suspension of play, I think too much has been read into the form of the Swiss. Paar sitting at $2 on the clay from what I have seen of late is value, and worth a 1.5 unit selection.