Below are some quick thoughts on both of the semi finals from Palermo today.
Martic vs Kontaveit
I have thought long and hard about this match, and I have come to the conclusion that Anett Kontaveit presents as value. A great sign of how well Petra Martic is travelling in terms of her form is how she is able to handle situations where she can dictate the majority of rallies. There have been some up-and-down moments for her across the week, and I think the way Kontaveit has struck the ball over her last two matches in particular presents as a significant problem. Something clicked in the mind of Kontaveit after dropping the first set to Siegemund, and the fact she has creeped out beyond $2.40 at some bookmakers puts it at a position to make a 1 unit selection on Kontaveit. With her ability to dictate rallies, and the fact this is scheduled in the heat of the day, I like her to progress to the final.
Suggested Bet
1 unit Kontaveit to defeat Martic at $2.41 at Topsport
Ferro vs Giorgi
Speaking of creeping out to a value price, that looks to have happened to the price of Giorgi as well, albeit to a slightly lesser extent than Kontaveit.
I have been incredibly impressed with both players this week, however the strength of opponent faced by Giorgi has been a touch above. She came from a set down to Juvan and Yastremska, including 2 match points in set 2 in her quarter final. Ferro has been incredibly solid, however Errani (in 2020), Podoroska and Alexandrova are not as strong in terms of their form as what she will see today.
The back-to-back victories from a set down are a great indication of the mindset of the Italian, and I think there is enough value in the price for a 0.5 unit selection.