Stosur vs Keys (Approx 05:00pm AEDST)
The opening rounds on the outside court are doing wonders for Sam Stosur, as she did a fantastic job against Angelique Kerber the other day to win in two tiebreak sets.
Stosur is a really tricky match-up for Keys. Firstly she has a solid serve, and Keys is certainly not known for her return of serve in any capacity. The second point, which is key, is the slice backhand of Stosur. The Australian has the ability to take all the pace off the ball and keep it low, delivering a quality slice on a consistent basis. Taking the pace off the ball and keeping it low is not a great combination for Keys, as she will need to consistently generate her own pace on the ball, which can lead to a higher error rate.
Keys had a really suitable first round opponent in Bouzkova. She had the match on her terms and Bouzkova provided the same approach throughout the match, leaving Keys unchallenged. Keys performance was largely due to 70% of first serves in play, as she struggled on the second serve, winning 5/13 (38%).
If Stosur can use the kick serve effectively, and neutralise Keys consistently with the backhand slice, I think she will perform well in conditions that are made to suit her today. She had the full support of the crowd on Monday and was brilliant, so I feel she is value today. Keep in mind, Stosur did beat Keys in their last meeting as a $4 underdog in Miami in 2019. With that fresh in the mind, and Stosur in improved form, I will take her at the bigger price today.
2.5 units Stosur to defeat Keys at $4.30 at Topsport