Spot the Situation

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Spot the Situation – January 8

Welcome to the new form of information to be delivered in 2020. Part of the reason for reducing costs of subscription is based on my desire to change things up a bit. I love to provide information, especially if it is something you may not always think about or be aware of whilst analysing the odds.

The aim of this mail-out is to deliver what I believe to be incredibly important content when you are analysing plays. How often have you seen a market, thought you have found value, to then see a poor performance? I bet there is an extra sting in the tail on the occasion you notice that player fronting up the next day at a bigger tournament, attempting to qualify.

The tennis circuit is a very tough game, with a lot of travel week to week. It can be hard to maintain motivation week in week out. What this information will highlight is players that are going deep into this week, and what their projected schedule is for next week.

Every player has different motivation, so this information is subjective. We will provide an opinion on each spot. You may not always find a play, but it may explain why some odds look to be value, and cause you to dig a little deeper. Keep in mind, qualifying begins on Saturday in most instances.

Please note, we are not implying any of these players would be giving below 100%, we are simply highlighting which players have a heavy schedule that should be considered when placing a bet.

We will start by focussing on players that are still active in Challenger tournaments, who are listed to take part in ATP qualifying for the following week.

Players currently active in:

  • Canberra (now in Bendigo)
    • Henri Laaksonen – Needs two more withdrawals to reach the main draw of the Australian Open, otherwise he will need to qualify next week. That won’t start until the new week, so he should be fine in Bendigo.
    • Jaume Munar – Listed to take place in qualifying in Adelaide, which will commence on Saturday. Won’t want to be here come the semi-finals, and I will be interested to see his price vs Laaksonen, as he will no doubt have Adelaide in the back of his mind.
    • Philipp Kohlschreiber – listed to be playing Auckland qualifying, which is likely to start Saturday. A little more difficult to get to Auckland from Bendigo. Will have to weigh up semi final appearance at Challenger level vs ATP qualifying in quite a weak field.
    • Marc Polmans – In the doubles still in Canberra, however is listed to participate in Adelaide qualifying. Unlikely to preference a Challenger doubles run over ATP singles qualifying.
  • Noumea
    • Cedrik-Marcel Stebe – listed to play in qualifying in Auckland, so like Kohlschreiber would need to weigh up semi-final Challenger vs ATP qualifying. About a 3 hour flight to Auckland.
    • Harold Mayot – An alternate for Bendigo, however needs 13 withdrawals. Not a concern re motivation this week.
    • Chris O’Connell – has the ability to participate in what looks to be a very weak Bendigo Challenger next week. Not a step up, but worth considering given the strength of the tournament.
    • Thai-Son Kwiatkowski – In the same boat as O’Connell – has Bendigo next week if doesn’t make the qualifying draw for the Aus Open (needs 3 withdrawals).
  • Ann Arbor
    • Noah Rubin – will need to be in Melbourne by likely Monday to participate in the Australian Open Qualifying. Tough to have to travel to Australia from the US, so I would be very surprised if Rubin was still in the tournament come the weekend. $20,000 on offer to lose in the first round of qualifying in Melbourne, nearly double what the winner in Ann Arbor will receive.
    • Agustin Velotti – weirdly placed as an alternate in Adelaide qualifying . Needs too many withdrawals (seven) to feature though.
    • Daniel Altmaier – main draw participant in Bangkok next week. Needs points wherever he can get them so I wouldn’t expect him to be focussed on anything other than Ann Arbor. Up to 24 hours of travel required to get Bangkok from Ann Arbor so may be worth opposing next week if a quick turnaround.
    • Edan Leshem – unlikely to make Bangkok draw as an alternate.
    • JC Aragone – Also listed to take part in Bangkok, so has a main draw spot. As mentioned above, it is a lot of travel to reach Bangkok, so keep an eye out if he makes it deep this week as that will be a tough turnaround.

For the women, here is a list of players at each tournament who are currently scheduled to compete in qualifying for either the WTA event in Adelaide or Hobart.

  • Brisbane
    • Ash Barty – Heading to Adelaide – she had pulled out of some tournaments in the lead-up to other Grand Slams in the last 12 months, so won’t want to have two full weeks. Tough to not play in front of the home crowd though, so she would likely take part next week. Will have the bye to start next week which helps.
    • Jennifer Brady – Has qualifying in Adelaide next week. Would likely push towards a title this week if still in Brisbane, so not too worried about motivation.
    • Ajla Tomljanovic – Adelaide Qualifying – still in Brisbane in singles and doubles.
    • Su-Wei Hsieh – Currently alive in the doubles, and currently the first alternate for singles draw in Adelaide. If nobody pulls out, she would need to be in Adelaide Saturday for qualifying.
    • Kristina Mladenovic – currently in the doubles, however will also need to go through qualifying in Adelaide.
  • Auckland
    • Christina McHale – Currently in the qualifying draw for Hobart.
    • Laura Siegemund – Currently in the qualifying draw for Hobart
    • Daria Kasatkina – Currently in qualifying draw for Adelaide
    • Jill Teichmann – Currently in qualifying draw for Hobart. First alternate.
    • Jessica Pegula – Currently in qualifying draw for Adelaide.
    • Taylor Townsend – Still in doubles, however listed in qualifying for Adelaide.

The main focus points for mine would be those still active, but part of a larger tournament next week. These include:

  • Noah Rubin
  • Marc Polmans (doubles)
  • Su-Wei Hsieh (doubles)
  • Philipp Kohlschreiber
  • Jaume Munar
  • Cedrik-Marcel Stebe
  • Taylor Townsend (doubles)

One to watch is Tomljanovic in the doubles if she is knocked out of the singles by Pliskova.

Keep an eye out in the coming days for their matches, and we will monitor what we perceive as difficult spots for players.

As this is new, we would appreciate any feedback you may have. Please let us know on Twitter.