Finally, some REAL clay. Last week in Charleston was technically clay, but for me, clay is the red dirt. Lots of sliding and dirty shoes please. Although Bogota is close to the time zones in Charleston & Monterrey and it should be a short flight, but we don’t often see big names in this tournament. As you look through the finals from past years you see a lot of names you wouldn’t expect. Lara Arruabarrena has been to the final 3 times. This year seems to be more of the same. We’ve got Jelena Ostapenko, Amanda Anisimova, Laura Seigemund and a bunch of names only well known by true WTA fans. But fear not, there’s plenty of talent in this field and we should have plenty of entertaining matches. Let’s take a look at some historical numbers and then look through the draw for value in the outright market.
The tables above show us what % of matches since 2010 have gone over a specific total. The top shows just Bogota and the bottom shows every clay court tournament. Start by comparing the bottom rows, which shows us rates for all rounds of the tournament combined. It looks like matches tend to be longer in Bogota. Most of the larger edges are at totals below 20 which you rarely see. Everything else is about a 3% edge, so not very meaningful. Overall expect totals be close to your average clay match.
The tables above show us what % of matches since 2010 would have covered various game spreads. The top shows just Bogota and the bottom shows every clay court tournament. Start again by comparing the bottom rows, which shows us rates for all rounds of the tournament combined. It looks like matches are tighter in Bogota than they are on average. The edge at 3.5 games is only 1%, but everywhere else is 5% or greater. Don’t be afraid to bet the underdogs this week.
The 3 best players in the tournament are all in the top half. Jelena Ostapenko, Amanda Anisimova and Laura Siegemund are the top 3 priced players in the outright market. This is particularly strange since Ostapenko and Anisimova are setup to meet in the quarterfinals. With that in mind I can’t pick either player, but I do like the 9-1 price on Siegemund. She was better in 2017, but still solid in 2018 and has a very easy draw. Schmiedlova in the second will be her toughest match until she faces the winner of Ostapenko/Anisimova. At 9-1 this is good value for someone with a cakewalk to the semifinals. Half a unit on Siegemund 9-1.
Another week, another Zidansek outright pick for me. She thrives on the clay and has a very nice draw. Khromaceva is also good on clay, but Zidansek is still a big favorite. After that she doesn’t face any real opposition until the semifinals and even then it’s Arruabarrena, Linette or maybe even Shelby Rogers. Zidansek will be the favorite in that match. Zidansek is 12-1 and that’s great value. I’m going to put half on her. Arruabarenna is the same price, but has a tougher draw. Jakupovic is actually more expensive at 11-1 and also has a tougher draw.
Historical trends like:
- Underdog spreads
- Half unit Siegemund 9-1
- Half unit Zidansek 12-1
Here’s how my bracket looks:
- 1st Quarter – Ostapenko over Anisimova
- 2nd Quarter – Siegemund over Trevisan
- 3rd Quarter – Zidansek over Babos
- 4th Quarter – Arruabarrena over Rogers
- Final – Siegemund over Zidansek
Thanks for reading! Please reach out to me on Twitter @_Noops. I’ll be posting a daily write up of every match throughout the tournament and I’d love to answer any questions or hear any thoughts you have. Be sure to subscribe to the Net Worth podcast (@NetWorthPod). I host with 2 other top level tennis handicappers every week. It’s available on iTunes, Soundcloud and just about everywhere else. Thanks again and best of luck!