Is the market sleeping a little on Zhizhen Zhang?
The Chinese player is fresh off a dominant victory against Lorenzo Musetti and now receives a similar SP against Gael Monfils, a player who hasn’t won two matches in-a-row all season.
Monfils was objectively lucky to escape a second set against Botic Van De Zandschulp as the Dutchman was brutally unlucky in the breaker, allowing the 37-year-old to move advance.
In that match, the market allocated Monfils a $1.67 starting quota against someone who’s 3-6 this season and grossly out of form.
In the last 52 weeks, Zhang and Monfils share an almost identical combined hold-break percentage, but if you take Monfils’ title-winning run at Antwerp out of the equation (an indoor hard court tournament), the advantage lies with the Chinese player.
Monfils was as astonishing 111% combined hold-break that week in what I would call a fairly soft run to a main-draw title (Fucsovics, Misolic, Mannarino, Djere, Kotov)
If you exclude that competition – and all indoor contests from his data – he is just 10-10 over the last 52 weeks.
I know this feels like the anti-Monfils brigade, but I backed this guy a week ago against Shapovalov at odds against, but I don’t fancy him as much without a roof over his head.
Zhang is 12-10 on outdoor hard courts in the last 12 months with wins over Lehecka, Hurkacz, and Ruud.
So, what am I missing? Why isn’t this contest a coin flip.
Well, it’s likely due to the long-form data Monfils possesses as he’s had an illustrious career.
But, the reality is, he’s not looked overly potent on outdoor hard courts this season and I think Zhang is somewhat of a sleeping giant.
He appeared very confident against Musetti and while the Italian flat out laid an egg, I look at all the public data available, overlay all the factors to do with reputation versus actual performance, and I truthfully think Zhang wins this match about 50% of the time, if not 47-48%.
I already have a bet pending on Zhang to win the quarter at $4.75 which is substantially offside.
That’s because I didn’t project him to be 2.3 in a round two match against Monfils, but here we are.
I’m double-dipping, but not for a big stake.
Suggested Bet:
0.5 units Zhizhen Zhang to WIN @ $2.30 with Bet365
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.