Negative 4.8 percent.
That is the data this season. 6.87 units down, and a truck load of losses I’ll never forget.
Contrary to the recent run of results, I’m happy to say that seven of my last nine bets have achieved positive CLV.
Stan Wawrinka today was an example as the $1.90 price on was a 6% edge as he was lower than $1.70 on all corporate bookmakers… but lost.
My average closing edge this month is -0.9, which isn’t good, but it does mean I can objectively say that I’ve been unlucky to lose almost six units in February.
I’m sitting here next to the TAB machine pricing up matches for the next round of tournaments and I’m driven by such a powerful feeling of motivation.
I don’t know why I keep doing it to myself, but I love this sport and I’m determined to keep learning and keep betting.
Albert Ramos Viñolas vs. Francisco Cerundolo
Prior to his opening-round victory over Francisco Comesana, the hard-hitting Cerundolo had looked completely lost in 2024, winning just two matches, one against Dane Sweeney at the Australian Open (in five sets), and another at Davis Cup level against Popko.
His rally tolerance at this stage of the season doesn’t seem to be there as he probably isn’t comfortable on the boggy, slow clay courts South America presents.
It’s funny because even though he’s an Argentine, I feel he’s better suited at your Hamburgs and Bastad’s, and I think the data backs that up too.
He exerted a lot on hard courts and even grass courts last season, and he looks slightly out of sorts on his original surface.
Despite the poor results, the market has still be fairly kind to him as he didn’t start an underdog in any of his two clay losses prior to Rio, and was handed a $1.70 price against Comesana.
Just back-tracking to his SoS this season, would you like to know the combined main draw wins for Sweeney, Popko and Comesana? Six.
Popko 4, Sweeney 2, Comesana 0.
And he beat Popko 7-5, 6-2, Sweeney 6-2 in the decider, and Comesana 6-2 in the decider after dropping a 1-6 second set.
Are any of these players as accomplished and experienced at the top level as Albert Ramos Viñolas? No.
I will concede the Spaniard has looked strange so far this season, winning tough three-sets contests over Cachin and Varillas but laying a complete egg against Cachin at Cordoba, one of the worst matches I’ve seen him play.
Ramos has been fine at this competition, winning 3/5 matches with victories over Etcheverry and Galan last season.
The question here, and the reason the market has taken a fairly firm stance against the Spaniard (relative to his historical profile) is: ‘how much does he have left in the tank?’
It’s true Cerundolo has the much bigger game and perhaps more endurance at his age, but Ramos’ experience and ability on these types of surfaces is unique.
He has an amazing ability to generate angles with his forehand and ultimately, has a very good feel for where his opponent is going to be and how to exploit someone’s weaknesses.
Sure, there’s been underwhelming performances so far this season but Cerundolo’s form guide – as I mentioned – is patchy at best.
The Argentine has won 33 main draw matches on clay in his career, and 18 of those have come over three sets.
This basically means, he goes the distance more often than not.
I did contemplate taking Ramos at the money line because this season it looks like he either shows up to win or doesn’t show up at all, but given Cerundolo’s inability to put together a tidy performance, combined with my interpretation of Ramos’ motivation levels this week (high), I’ve opted for the game spread.
Suggested Bet:
1.25 units Ramos +4.0 @ $1.80 with Pinnacle.
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.