I’ve taken a five-day freshen up, enjoyed my time in Fiji, and I’m back on deck just in time for the Masters 1000 finale at Miami.
Jannik Sinner will shoot for his third title of 2024 as he puts his 21-1 record against arguably the second-hottest player on the tour this season as Grigor Dimitrov waits on the other side of the net, the Bulgarian fan favourite amid somewhat of a career renaissance.
Dimitrov’s win over Zverev in the semi-finals will see the 32-year-old reenter the world’s top 10 for the first time since 2018 and he bloody deserves it given the 20-4 record he’s put together this season, adding another title to his collection with a break through at Brisbane in January.
Stylistically I don’t have a huge opinion of how this match will unfold but I’m going to keep it very straightforward and ride the superior form lines of Sinner that’s seen him knock off some of the best players in the world over the last six months, most recently dismantling Medvedev 6-1, 6-2.
The handicap of -3.5 looks a little steep on first glance, maybe, but when you break down Sinner’s overall body of work, combined with the dominance of his wins, you can make a case for it.
Out of the 20 completed wins this season (beat Raonic via retirement), Sinner has covered a -3.5 handicap in 18 of these, hammering the likes of Djokovic, Medvedev (as mentioned above), Lehecka and De Minaur (a four-game margin at Rotterdam).
He dropped the opening set to Griekspoor this week before eventually winning by five games against the Dutchman.
Outside that, there hasn’t been a single player that’s come close to the Italian.
Dimitrov’s form lines this week are solid, but was almost knocked out by Chile’s Alejandro Tabilo is the underdog traded into sub $1.20 up 5-2 in the tiebreak.
He also surpassed Hurkacz after the Pole – at 2-2 in the final-set tiebreak – brushed the net on a volley, losing the point, and then subsequently his head (and the match).
I love Grigor, and there’s nothing more pleasing than seeing the purple patch he’s in the middle of right now, but the recent history shows when Sinner wins, he wins well.
He’s hardly been tested this week and Dimitrov wrapped up his match late in the evening against Zverev after fighting the German over the three sets.
Suggested Bet:
1 unit Jannik Sinner -3.5 game handicap @ $2 with Pinnacle.
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.