What goes up must come down, and what goes down must come up.
That’s the mentality I’m adopting ahead of Kwon Soon Woo’s opening-round Miami match against Alexandre Muller as the 26-year-old Korean looks to win his first match in 2024 as the mandatory military service he took on last season has had a detrimental impact on his form.
When players go on losing runs like this, it can be toxic trying to pick the moments in which they’ll generate wins against, but I’m going to back in favour of the tour-level champion for the first time this season.
Kwon has lost nine matches in-a-row, and there’s no hiding from an ugly downturn like that, but as long as he’s on the court, injury-free and working towards a return to winning ways, I think the results will come.
If this was happening to a player deep in his 30s, I’d be more concerned, but father time isn’t going to work against Kwon yet and I’m confident the underlying hard-court data is good enough to make a play on him, here.
People sometimes forget the Kwon won an ATP title in Adelaide at the start of 2023 on an Adelaide court that greatly resembles the one we’re looking at in Florida.
Faster, lower bouncing, and outdoors in the elements. These are the conditions in which Kwon’s played his best tennis and in a situation where he’s avoiding 10 losses in-a-row, I feel the stage is set for him.
This play is obviously predicated largely on who’s on the other side of the net as Alexandre Muller is a solid hard-court player, but overall he’s not going to bring anything overly shocking to the table and really doesn’t have much of a ceiling on the main draw.
The Frenchman is 8-15 lifetime on hard courts at the top level, whereas Kwon is 48-51 – two data sets that aren’t really comparable to each other.
The only reason Kwon is the price he is is due to the current form and ‘what have you done for me lately’ mentality, but the constant firm we’ve seen on Kwon’s side gives me a bit of confidence as far as the wisdom of the crowd factor goes.
If these two were at the peak of their powers, Kwon would most definitely be a favourite and while that’s certainly not the case, I feel as though the 2-1 quota is excessive.
Part of being a profitable bettor isn’t reacting to trends once they start to occur, it’s getting ahead/anticipating them.
It’s an ugly duckling type of bet, and of course, there’s always a chance I’ll end up looking stupid, but I’m happy to have a poke at the price.
Suggested Bet:
1 unit Kwon Soon Woo to WIN @ $2.95 with Pinnacle.
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.