While betting against players under fatigue is a perfectly good strategy, I also find it handy to bet against the person whose taken advantage of the tired legs.
That’s the situation we get on Thursday as Marione Navone looks a little short after his victory as the walking dead, Federico Coria.
The elder Argentine had spent more time on the court than you’d care to imagine in the last month, and by the time to pairing reached the third set, Coria had one leg in the coffin.
Now, Navone will need to play someone much more capable and diverse and Yannick Hanfmann – someone who exploded onto the clay-court scene last season – is waiting on the other side of the net.
It’s hard to unpack data here, because one man plays largely on Challenger tour, while the other mixes it up on the main draw, but as far as the eye test goes, the German is the much more capable player at this level.
He has victories on this surface Navone wouldn’t dream of producing, and after a solid hit-out against Nicolas Jarry, I think he will see the Alcaraz-less draw as one he can make inroads in
Suggested Bet:
1 unit Hanfmann to WIN @ $1.74 with Pinnacle
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.