A very active marketplace for Rio this morning with players firming and drifting all over the shop.
While there aren’t a lot of matches I’m interested in (that I haven’t already bet on), I’ve had my eye on Christian Garin, a former champion here, against Roberto Carballes Baena.
Full disclosure, Garin is coming off a retirement at Cordoba against Zapata Miralles and has been crippled by injuries in the last three or so seasons.
That being said, he does tend to come out of the blocks quickly, mostly because that’s when he’s at his most explosive and fresh.
When Garin is playing well on clay courts, he is extremely hard to deal with. He’s a multi tour-level champion on the dirt and can produce a level that most of this draw cannot.
The only issue is that his body never holds up long enough, whether that be during a tough, three set match, or over the course of a tournament.
But with this bet, I don’t need it to hold up for three hours, I only need it to hold up for 45 minutes.
As I mentioned, the Chilean is a former champion here, winning 5/6 matches at Rio.
He was very good in a 6-1 first set against Zapata two weeks ago, and also won the first set against Christopher O’Connell at the Australian Open.
If you scroll through his form guide, you can see that when fatigue isn’t an issue, he is extremely efficient.
There’s no doubt he’s the more entertaining and athletic of the two in this match-up, and if he can play an aggressive style, things will be on his racket against the Spaniard.
RCB is a very tough player who has the typical Spanish grit, but there is somewhat of a ceiling on his game simply due to his inability to hit out and break open matches with any sort of knock out punch.
That being said, fitness is usually not an issue and he’s more than able to slug it out in a sweaty third-set.
He shocked the tour by winning a title at Marrakech last season, a tournament played 466 metres above sea level.
Since then, he’s had a mixed bag of results on clay.
In 2024, he’s 1-2 on the dirt with a win over Mariano Navone in which he lost the first set.
So, he’s 0/3 in opening stanzas this season.
It’s also worth noting he’s never won at this tournament (0/2 lifetime).
Today at Rio, there’s a lot of cloud cover with thunderstorms scheduled.
It’s already a slow deck and the increased cloud cover will only make it slower.
It’s going to be tough going for Garin and as the match wears on I don’t know if his body can hold up, but as mentioned, I think he’s the better of the two in the dash to the first-set finish line, and at odds against I’m happy to be on.
Suggested Bet:
0.75 units Christian Garin to WIN set one @ $2.07 with BetKings.
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.