Morning, punters.
Bright and early start for me with another preview from Cordoba.
I’ve bet into Federico Coria in the first contest, and now I’ll back another Argentine in the second semi-final.
I’ve been extremely outspoken this week about the class edge Sebastian Baez has on this draw, but punters are continually betting into his opponents, at least the ones I’m following.
I won’t pretend my reads are always right, and I’m not all the way right on Baez yet, but it’s clear to me this is one of his favourite tournaments with a set of conditions he can thrive in.
He was slow starting against Hugo Dellien in the first of two contests yesterday, but in my opinion that’s very forgivable given it was his first main draw match on clay in some time, whereas Dellien was well acclimatized.
After putting that set behind him, he was fairly dominant down the stretch and took that momentum into an absolute bread-sticking of Facundo Diaz Acosta, someone who was clearly outclassed.
I think what people sometimes forget is the sheer edge in quality Baez now has when he plays in these 250 tournaments.
He won Cordoba last year in similar circumstances, and I really don’t know if anyone left in the draw can trouble him.
Luciano Darderi has been one of the better stories this 2024 season so far, and we cashed a quarters ticket on him which felt great.
But, we need to be honest with ourselves about his strength of schedule, and how troubled a lot of the Europeans have looked coming over here.
After qualifying well, the Argentinian-born Italian took out Barrios Vera, who is grossly out of form, before dismantling Ofner and knocking off Hanfmann.
To beat the latter two players in straight sets is very impressive, but in the case of Ofner, it was quite clear the Austrian had no idea how to conduct himself in these conditions, and the longer this tournament progresses, the less impressed I am by wins over players from outside of Argentina.
It’s a real gritty, South American’s tournament, and no matter what the media is saying about Darderi, I truly believe he is playing someone who could make a round of 16 at Roland Garros in the near future.
I think Darderi has a bright future at this level, but I believe his overall comfort in South America gave him the kick he needed to get past a couple of guys who now – using hindsight – looked to be well under the odds on the outright markets.
He now plays a bona fide stud who rarely slips up when he earns these opportunities, and I’m expecting him to deliver again today.
Suggested Bets:
1.25 units Sebastian Baez -3.0 games at $1.92 with Pinnacle, $1.87 at TopSport.
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.