Alex’s SB58 1st TD Scorer Preview

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Super Bowl 58 – Chiefs vs 49ers First Touchdown Scorer Bets

It’s been a great season of betting on the player to score the first touchdown. We finished with 24 wins, 348 losses, 3 pushes(players who didn’t play), and a profit of 81.5 units. The Super Bowl gives us one more chance at glory. The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers have more concentrated touchdown scorers than most teams with guys like Travis Kelce and Christian McCaffery getting a large portion of red zone carries and targets, but that was the regular season. In the playoffs the opposition is better prepared to stop those kinds of plays which means more chances for someone to sneak across the goal line. Here’s who I bet to score 6 points before anyone else.

George Kittle +1100 (12.00) – The 49ers tight end has played 97% of snaps in San Francisco’s first two playoff games. That’s the highest snap count of any player besides Brock Purdy. It’s always easier to score if you’re on the field. I do expect Kittle to have to do a lot of blocking against this Chiefs defense which could means less targets, but I think it means better targets. These teams have had two weeks to prepare for this game and should be ready for their opponent’s plans A, B, and even C. I think that means we’ll see more creative plays like using Kittle in play action or letting him slip into open space. He’s also athletic enough to break a long touchdown over the top and the 49ers have shown themselves to be aggressive early.

Patrick Mahomes +2500 (26.00) – The Chiefs quarterback hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown all season and if he doesn’t score one in the Super Bowl, it will be his first season as a starter without a rushing touchdown. That’s not the main reason I’m betting on him, but it’s not not a reason I’m betting on him. Mahomes is very athletic and can find success running whenever he chooses. He generally focuses on passing the ball to get his receivers and tight ends involved, but we’ve seen him take off in big moments and there is no bigger moment than the Super Bowl. I expect the defenses to be ready for these offenses early which means more break downs that create chances for quarterbacks to run it into the endzone themselves.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling +3000 (31.00) – MVS plays the second most snaps for the Chiefs of any position player and has the third most targets in the passing games in the playoffs. Despite that he is priced in the same range as Clyde Edwards-Helaire who plays <30% of snaps and Justin Watson who plays about half as many snaps as Valdes-Scantling. We’ve seen a few big drops from MVS, but he continues to get targets and have chances to score touchdowns. This number is just too high to pass up, so let’s hope he actually catches the deep ball he sees early in the game.

Brock Purdy +4000 (41.00) – San Francisco’s quarterback ran the ball 39 times in 16 regular season games. He has run the ball 11 times in 2 playoff games. That’s an average of 5.5 carries per game which is more than double his average 2.4 carries per game in the regular season. We’ve seen the 49ers use him in short yardage situations and even run their own version of the tush push in their last two games after not seeing them do it in the 16 games before that. Strategies change in the playoffs and teams are less risk averse. Not they want Purdy to get hurt, but they are less concerned about it given this is the last game of the year and they might not want to hold anything back. Maybe he’ll sneak it in from the 1 yard line or run it in at the end of a broken play.

Noah Gray +4500 (46.00) – There’s a good chance that the 1sttouchdown is scored by a Kansas City tight end and I think it could be Gray and not his more famous counterpart. Gray has seen his snap count and targets in the passing game increase each week of the postseason. Andy Reid is known for saving his most creative plays for later in the season and we’ve seen him use Gray in ways that he was not used during the regular season. They’ve used Gray as a fullback and even setup short passes in space for him. He is exactly the kind of player that I can see scoring on leak out pass around the five yard line or even get the carry at the one yard line.

Kyle Juszczyk +5000 (51.00) – Speaking of not holding anything back and betting on players who find themselves in bigger roles in the postseason, I present Kyle Juszczyk. He had one carry and three targets last week after averaging just 1.3 targets+carries in the regular season. Juszczyk played 40 snaps which was his most snaps since week 3 and I expect even more time on the field for him in this game. Like Kittle, he’ll be needed to block players on the Kansas City defense. More time on the field means more opportunities to score on a play action pass or even a short yardage carry as part of a special play.

Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.