WELCOME TO THE LONE STAR STATE – YEEHAW
This week we’re visiting one of the fastest decks on the tour as the indoor hard court venue at Dallas is pacey as all hell, with a very low bounce to-boot.
I’ll be looking to back servers but also guys who hit a flat ball.
QUARTER ONE:
The first thing I think when I look at this section is: “my god, how bad is Tiafoe going?”
Since his quarter-finals loss to Ben Shelton, he’s 4-8 with a combined hold-break of 92% – good grief.
He seems pretty well impossible to back at the current quotas, even though it looks a pretty manageable draw.
I mentioned at the top I like big servers, and I can’t help me somewhat intrigued by Alex Michelsen who was dominant in the closing stages of 2023, making the US hard courts his own at that level, and was very good at Melbourne, knocking off Lehecka before losing to Zverev in a tight affair.
I also like the look of Marcus Giron who – despite being poor in Australia/New Zealand – really should be playing well in conditions like these.
He was a quarter-finalist here last year and all in all, was greatly impressive on quicker outdoor hard courts.
His run at Tokyo was brilliant and really should have featured in the finale there that week.
Unlike Michelsen, he could avoid a meeting against Tiafoe and I do power rank him as the best player in that mini section: Purcell, Moreno De Alboran, Krueger.
Looking at the quarter price of $5.50, the $1.30 quota against the aforementioned Spaniard seems fair, as it shapes as a true get right spot for the American, and I would have him as a favourite versus Purcell, although it wouldn’t be a short price, perhaps $1.70.
I disagree with Max Purcell being shorter than Giron, as well as Michelson being shorter too.
0.5 units Marcus Giron to WIN quarter one @ $5.50
QUARTER TWO:
I really have been waiting for Mannarino to drop off, but he was remarkable at the Australian Open against Shelton, and generally looks to be on a similar trajectory to last season. He plays one of Martinez or Nishioka first-up, and I’ve got to say, he should be pretty short against either one of them.
Eubanks could be the potential concern, but the form he’s bringing in doesn’t impress me and he’ll probably have his hands full against Steve Johnson followed by a Duckworth/Zvajda challenge.
It’s not the flashiest bet, but I think it’s value no matter what way you slice it.
1.5 units Adrian Mannarino to WIN quarter two @ $2.50
QUARTER THREE:
If you told me I’d be starring down the barrel of Shelton and Mannarino at Dallas, I probably would have laughed. I think Shelton in particular goes around pretty short, but good grief, it’s a good looking section.
Michael Mmoh or Emilio Nava first up, followed by a contest against Jordan Thompson – provided he handles his business.
Thompson is a tough out, and should be very comfortable here, but Shelton’s upside is no joke and I generally have faith in him on home soil.
1.5 units Ben Shelton to WIN quarter three @ $1.95
QUARTER FOUR:
Could I possibly bet into four quarters prices at the one tournament? Been a while since I’ve done that.
Well, I think it’s happening. After I bet on Koepfer to beat Kovacevic for 1.25 units, I kind of wished I’d had more on.
This is a way for me to bet into him further. I know he probably hasn’t proven himself to be a week in, week out buy, and I will admit, the Australia > Hungary > to US schedule does concern me a little bit, but he’s just been so classy so far.
One loss on the resume this season and it was four sets to Zverev. He made minced meet of all opponents at the Canberra Challenger (I was there to witness that), and he’s honestly a class above Hijikata or Quinn (second-round opponent).
The caveat here is taking on Tommy Paul, but the American looked really out of sorts in that final stanza against Kecmanovic at Melbourne and let’s face it: he’s only won one title in his career, and can slip up well before the finish line.
0.4 units Dominik Koepfer to WIN quarter four @ $7 with Bet365.
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.