Both Taylor Fritz and Stefanos Tsitsipas have been getting better and better over the course of the tournament, which I had not expected. That being said, whatever I did expect was wrong in the first week of the Australian Open. Hopefully, that will change in week two.
Tsitsipas opened around 1.50 here across all books before Pinnacle corrected that with their 1.67 opener. That for me was a fair line, so while I was initially seeing some value in Fritz, that has now shifted towards Tsitsipas. I might be in the wrong again, but I don’t agree with the market here. It will still be chilly in Melbourne tomorrow, however, humidity increases again. These conditions should favor Tsitsipas. Also, the courts are playing slower than in the past, giving the Greek just enough time to defend and set up his backhand. He’s moving better than Fritz and can match the power of his groundstrokes. Fritz needs to be super consistent here and I’m still not sold on his form and fitness. Eye-test and knowing that a demolition of Hugo Gaston oftentimes is on the Frenchman himself make me rate Tsitsipas’s wins over Jordan Thompson and Luca Van Assche higher. I’m giving Tsitsipas a 60%+ chance to advance and would play him down to 1.72.
Suggested Bets:
1u on Stefanos Tsitsipas ML at 1.79 (-127) with Pinnacle
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.