Vinny’s Australian Open Men’s Preview – Paul vs Draper

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I do not agree with the current market move that actually just pushed Tommy Paul all the way up to 2.00 (+100). Maybe the weather forecast makes people think that without the heat, Jack Draper will suddenly turn into a best-of-five machine. I’d strongly argue against that.

Draper is one of the most talented guys in the game right now, however, of all the players in the top 100, he’s also one of the most vulnerable guys when it comes to physicality and fitness. He did come back from a two-sets-to-one deficit in round one against Marcos Giron, but was fetching up right after exchanging hands at net. Trailing Giron – who’s not at his very best either – hasn’t been the greatest sign in its own right and it does seem like the long week in Adelaide didn’t do him any favors when it comes to his chances at the Australian Open.

The young Brit looked super impressive last week in Adelaide where he beat Paul 6-1, 6-4, however, today’s circumstances will be completely different. Paul is one of the fitter guys on tour and has a very strong and consistent game. The American made it all the way to the semifinals in Melbourne last year and even in cooler conditions, he holds a strong advantage over Draper in best-of-five format. It is supposed to be quite windy today, so while it’s always hard to predict who copes better with that, nuisance only multiplies when you handle further (physical) issues on top. I gladly take the boosted odds on Paul who should be able to extend this match and grind Draper down eventually.

Suggested Bets:
1u on Tommy Paul ML at 1.96 (-104) with Pinnacle

0.5u on Over 39.5 games at 2.03 (+103) with Pinnacle

Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.