It feels strange wanting to be with a player so badly throughout a tournament, then being forced to switch it up and back his opponent.
But, as is always the case: everyone has a price.
Alejandro Tabilo has reached the viable price for me ahead of Friday’s Auckland 250 semi-final as the Chilean live wire will take on France’s Arthur Fils, someone who has been relatively untested thus far at New Zealand.
While Fils was able to navigate past Altmaier on Thursday, I wasn’t overly impressed by the first set he put together and had the German not been injured, thing might not have panned out smoothly for the 19-year-old.
It was clear he was the better hard court player, but his overall maturity isn’t where it needs to be just yet, which is totally understandable given his age and the mountain of expectations piled onto his shoulders.
There were a few too many cheap misses and sloppy decisions, but he got the job done.
What I’m focusing on is the SP.
Fils closed around the 1.35 mark against Altmaier, and after moving through via retirement, has gone up 10 cents shorter against someone who has a higher ceiling, at least in my opinion.
The Chilean lefty can’t really be read using a stat sheet. He’s one of those players who flashes a few times a year and even though he will often times look sloppy at the Challenger level, he’s more than good enough to pop up at tournaments like this and do well.
250 tournaments pre grand slam are notorious for producing long-shot winners, and Tabilo fits the bill for someone who can create a boil over.
You might not realise it, but dating back to November last season, the 27-year-old has won 10 matches in-a-row on hard courts and in the last 52 weeks, is 17-6 with a combined hold-break total of 105.8.
Altmaier was 13-18 entering yesterday’s clash with a far inferior data set.
Statistically speaking, the Chilean holds serve 5 percent more often than Altmaier and Fils wasn’t able to generate a single break point in Thursday’s opening stanza.
It was only for a clearly hampered German that Fils was able to create some inroads while returning but before that, he was sloppy.
The prior two performances against Gasquet and Borges were obviously better, but overall I don’t agree that he’s a fair whack shorter against Tabilo than he was against Altmaier.
Pushing your physical limitations the week before a grand-slam can sometimes be an unwise decision financially, and the 19-year-old Fils has a winnable but tough encounter on paper with Karen Khachanov to look forward to.
Tabilo won’t give a flying you-know-what about the Aussie Open and given his dedication this week, and clear opportunity to win a main-draw title, you can expect him to be fired up and ready to dial himself in.
We all know Fils is the better hard court player and will likely win more titles in 2024 than what Tabilo will win in his whole career, but this is a good spot to be against him.
Suggested Bet:
0.75 units Alejandro Tabilo +4.0 games @ $2 with Pinnacle, 0.5 units Alejandro Tabilo to WIN @ $4.26 with Pinnacle.
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.
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