Jake’s Australian Open Qualifying Preview: Gaston vs. Harris

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I don’t love betting into Hugo Gaston, as he’s generally a negative proposition outside of French shores, but Lloyd Harris looks to be comfortably under the odds, here.

The two will play each other in Australian Open qualifying final round, and Gaston looks more committed than usual this week.

The 23-year-old leftie has cruised past his two opponents so far, starting as at $1.44 against Bu Yunchaokete, and $1.40 against Beibit Zhukayev.

Both of these players have fairly stellar hard court records over the last 12 months and I find it substantial someone as volatile as Gaston started as short as he did.

I speak about this a lot, but frequently a player’s SP is driven by past accomplishments and perceived upside, rather than the ‘what have you done for me lately?’ factor.

In reality, Lloyd Harris’s SP and reputation right now is built largely on what he was doing a few years ago when he beat the likes of Karen khachanov at the US Open, announcing himself as someone to genuinely watch out for in years to come.

Unfortunately for the 26 year old, he’s 26-24 in his last 50 matches at all levels, good for a flat staking return of -25.7%. What does this mean?

Well, basically if you took Harris at the H2H price in his last 50 matches, you’d just about be homeless.

This lends credence to my theory that the prices on this man are generally lower than they should be.

About 12 months ago, the data on Gaston playing outside of France was pretty poor, but there’s clearly been a smidge of maturation from the youngster which can be illustrated using these data points.

In the last 12 months at all levels away from France, Gaston is 42-26 for a flat staking profit of 4.2%, and if you took him only at the Challenger level throughout the same time Frame, he’s 33-15 for +12.2%.

This gives me an indication that market is slightly off on its reads of these two players, and that conveniently works in my favour as I’m higher than the books on Gaston and lower on Harris.

This equals value

Suggested Bet
0.75 units Hugo Gaston to WIN @ $2.77 with Pinnacle.

Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.