Jake’s Complete Adelaide Guide: Quarters and Outright Bets

Posted on

Hey, legends.

Beautiful night skies in Australia’s capital and I’ve decided to churn out an extended piece breaking down Adelaide’s 250 tournament, burying a few gems along the way.

I had a look at the quarters prices on Tuesday night but wasn’t able to send the prices at a reasonable hour, so this one’s being written up at night and should be live Thursday morning.



It’s funny how England’s Jack Draper was originally supposed to go through qualifying to reach the main draw, and after being given a lucky pass into the first round, is at the pointy end of the market having never won a main-draw title.

I do understand it, though. Draper has elite upside and is only going to improve. He was ultra close to winning a chip at Sofia last season and it does only feel like a matter of time with the 22-year-old.


Tommy Paul at the very top of the tournament is also very hard in the market, having been a much more constant fixture in the business end of tournaments like this.

The American has perhaps the best movement on the tour and is extremely well respected by his peers. At 26, Paul has just the one title to his name as the indoor courts of Stockholm was the place he broke his maiden, and I’d say he’ll be in for a few more before it’s time to hang ’em up.


Miomir Kecmanovic somewhat of a dark horse, but never seems to unlock the additional level required to win tournaments. He was quite good against McDonald and I thought very unlucky to not take Tiafoe to a decider at Hong Kong last week, he can’t be completely penned.


The Aussie has done better than most expected and should be meeting his maker in Tommy Paul on Thursday. However, if there’s ever a good time to produce an upset, it’s against someone who’s playing their first match of the season – and it’s even better when the crowd’s behind you.

THE BET: 1 unit Tommy Paul to WIN quarter 1 @ $2.50 with Bet365. Looks value at $2.37 or better.

I’m happy to be somewhat against Jack Draper and back the best credentialed player in this section. Tommy Paul is very good on hard courts and doesn’t have an issue playing in the heat. He’s a relatively consistent competitor and there usually not a huge different between his best and worst day. He’s defensively extremely sound and could catch Draper after a tough encounter with Kecmanovic, or he might even be able to run into the Serbian instead – Miomir isn’t hopeless to wear down Draper and get the win. Fundamentally, this is a great price and one I didn’t think I’d get at the start of the week.



It’s funny. The only player in this section who has a bye is by far the most out of form. Musetti has been absolutely awful in the last 6 months and has barely tasted success on the main tour. Clay seems to be much more his go. I remember when he burst onto the scene in Mexico a few years ago. He looked like a genuine up and comer on the hard courts but his form has been so patchy since then. He’s young enough to turn it around but I can’t be with him.


The tour’s biggest Wests Tigers fan has displayed an incredibly high level through two tournaments so far and has earned a $1.60 price against Musetti – pretty well exactly where I marked him. You could also make the case he should be favourite to win this section and I think he’d be pretty close to evens against Bublik, and potentially odds-on against Evans. The home crowd bonus is huge and Thompson’s sheer ability to get around the court and assert his style on these surfaces makes him a danger for not only the section, but this whole tournament.


The Brit looked very good in a tough match on Wednesday night against Hijikata, which is particularly impressive given the nasty calf injury he sustained towards the back-end of 2023. People might have already forgotten that Evans took out the Washington title last season, one of the bigger outright upsets in recent memory. He’s 33 years old but hasn’t had the gruelling playing schedule a lot of 33-year-olds have had. It feels like he’s got a lot left to give and is as tenacious as they come.


If he gets past the first round, he’s usually hard to stop from there. Bublik doesn’t show maximum effort in every competition he plays, but is to be taken extremely seriously if interested. His results in Australia have generally been poor, but there’s nothing stopping him from winning another title this week. His serve is massive, and his unorthodox style can be quite unsettling.

THE BET: I’d love to have a bet, but the prices look about right. Gun to my head I’d take Thompson, but I think you can get more value backing him H2H two times in-a-row.



The Russian plays a bruising style, and despite his poor temperament, is able to keep himself in line most of the time. The run he produced at the end of last season was something to behold and his ability to play big points in crucial situations was impressive. Not sustainable, but impressive. The match against Tomas Martin Etcheverry did showcase his ball-bashing style, but also highlighted his lack of versatility. I don’t know what Shevchenko’s ceiling is given what I’ve just mentioned, but if he’s playing with confidence he can shake up any tournament on any surface.


I do think COC is the worst player in this section, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he can’t take out the quarter. He’s got a win over Sebastian Korda on outdoor hard courts and is reasonably hard in the market for the Shevchenko clash.

The Australian has a slick style for quicker decks and again, gets the crowd factor in his favour. The 29-year-old has done well to somewhat resurrect his career as he appeared to be destined for a life on the Challenger Circuit, but looked well within his rights to be on the tour last season.


Complete ball-bashing basket case who I can never read. Sonego’s best day and worst day are eons apart, and he wasn’t overly convincing in a three-sets win over Hanfmann, someone who has pretty poor hard court credentials.

He looks outclassed and outgunned against Korda, and I don’t have as much respect for the Italian as the market tends to have. I will admit, he can hit the cover off the ball when things go to plan, he can be extremely dangerous, but I’d generally rather be against him.


The finalist here last year and someone who I think will be winning plenty of matches down under for years to come. He had a first-up hiccup against Hanfmann, but I always tend to excuse the American for lapses like that. I don’t know why, but he always seems to have off days, but when he has on days, and on tournaments, he’s very dangerous.

Hot conditions, lively crowds and quicker hard courts work incredibly well for Seb and I see no reason why he can’t go one better than 2023. It’s about time he started putting pressure on himself to win these types of tournaments as the potential, ability, and pedigree is all there – he just needs to make it come together.

THE BET: 1.5 units Sebastian Korda to WIN quarter 3 @ $2.50 with Bet365. Looks good at $2.30 or better.



The Czech player looked unreal in a straight-sets win over Adam Walton and I’m pulling for him to continue the upwards trend, because he’s a treat to watch when he’s on song. He has massive power from both wings and can hit winners like no tomorrow. You only need to take one look at him to guess his style as he’s built like a tonne of bricks with legs like tree trunks.

His second-up contest against Lajovic looks a fairly routine contest for the youngster and he’s another player at double figures who’s a puncher’s chance to win his maiden title.


The Serbian found quite a rhythm against Kokkinakis and admittedly, played better than I expected but I still don’t think he has the upside to do much this week. You’ve got to be against a few blokes, and I guess I’m opposing Lajovic.


I wouldn’t say the win against Zapata Miralles was perfect but the Italian overcame a slow start and is now a shade of odds-against versus Nicholas Jarry, something the outright market didn’t reflect 24 hours ago.

Arnaldi’s data looks impressive, and he’s taken some decent scalps in the last 12 months, but I wouldn’t call myself an expert on his level and generally think the freight train that is Nicolas Jarry will be too good.


I truly think it’s time to start taking the Chilean’s form seriously as the wins on all surfaces are starting to stack up, making it really tricky for doubters to build a case against his legitimacy.

He wasn’t lights out at the United Cup but in the last 12 months, he’s registered hard court victories over the following: Roman Safiullin, Luca Van Assche, Alex Michelsen, Gabriel Diallo, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Matteo Arnaldi, Lorenzo Sonego, Adrian Mannarino… can we stop pretending this bloke is no good?

THE BET: I could make a case for Lehecka, but I’ve got enough invested in him against Lajovic and I think we’ll get an average price of about $1.80 in the quarter-final. Let’s save our ammo for that.


0.5 units Sebastian Korda to WIN outright @ $7.50 with SportsBet

Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.