Only five days into the new season and you already know the drill – we’re going for another Ostapenko set over. I already talked about that edge in my preview against Giorgi and after the Latvian’s three-set win over Karolina Pliskova, 39 of her last 74 matches have now gone the distance (53%). That’s not a small sample size when it comes to tennis betting and considering we’re getting odds of 2.40 (+140) here again, that would equal an 11% edge if we took 53% as a fair implied probability.
When it comes to the moneyline odds between Ostapenko and Vika Azarenka, I agree with the books and market who make this a coin-flip match. Azarenka definitely passes the eye test early doors in the season and Ostapenko is always good for redlining a set and not even giving her opponent a chance to take matters into their own hands. Again, I’m also adding the 1st set games over with two players that are able to hold serve quite frequently.
If you bet these set overs regularly like I do, always make sure which book you choose. Today, we’re getting the same odds on Pinnacle and Unibet. Should it come to a retirement during the third set, Pinnacle will inexplicably void the bet while Unibet will pay out the full winnings since the outcome is already determined. If the difference in odds is only one or two cents, I always choose to avoid Pinnacle with over 2.5 set bets. Third-set retirements might be rare, but they do happen from time to time.
Suggested Bets:
0.5u on Over 10.5 games 1st set at 4.00 (+300) with Unibet
1u on Over 2.5 sets at 2.40 (+140) with Unibet
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.