Attention New Followers – There is nothing comfortable about making this play. The odds suggest there is value here, even against one of the best of all time. I have Nadal as a strong favourite, however I don’t think the odds are currently accurate. I’m taking the value price here.
Rafael Nadal has been largely untested so far in singles tennis in 2024. I think things may change a touch here against Jordan Thompson.
Jason Kubler lacked the genuine weapons to be able to challenge Nadal in any capacity. Thompson has more strings to his bow to be able to challenge Nadal, yet his odds are longer than we saw against Kubler. I can understand the price point around Nadal in round 1 against Thiem given it was his first singles match back on tour, however this price on Thompson I cannot marry up with the shorter odds on Kubler.
One of my knocks on Thompson at times has been his ability to generate topspin and attack on the forehand. That won’t be as much of an issue here as there is a lot of topspin coming from the other end of the court, even if it is one of the best players of all time.
Thompson has a massive opportunity to go deep in a home tournament here, and has taken Humbert’s draw courtesy of the walkover. Brisbane isn’t Nadal’s grand final – he is looking to build his fitness in the Australian Open and Roland Garros/Olympics. As a result, I cannot have Nadal south of $1.30. Thompson’s serve is good enough to generate some cheap points, and he should give a good sight at the longer odds.
Suggested Bet
1 unit Thompson to defeat Nadal at $6.20 at Betfair minus commission
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.