Whenever I’m talking about an edge like the set overs with Ostapenko, these bets usually start losing. Nonetheless, today’s matchup with Karolina Pliskova is another one where I don’t put as much trust in the Latvian as the books do. The market has slightly adjusted since opening, but barely enough.
Pliskova has been playing really well in her season opener against Naomi Osaka. She hit 16 aces and won 84% of the points behind her first serve. Ostapenko has been even better in that department and fair play if she continues to win 89% of first serve points. Surely, this will be a serve-oriented match where getting one break could be enough to win a set.
The two have faced each other ten times before with both winning five matches while six of them have gone the distance. Maybe we can get this bet over the line this time, anyways, I have Pliskova closer to 45% to win this match. Anything is possible in Ostapenko matches, so I’m always happy to oppose her with a (seemingly) in-form opponent.
Suggested Bets:
0.5u on Over 10.5 games 1st set at 3.83 (+283) with Pinnacle
0.75u on Over 2.5 sets at 2.40 (+140) with Unibet
0.75u on Karolina Pliskova ML at 2.51 (+151) with Pinnacle
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.