I was more than comfortable staying out of this match-up when the odds were sub-$2 for both players, however the recent drift in Lorenzo Sonego has caused me to be interested enough to bite on this one.
This is a step up in opposition quality for Humbert, who has put together a solid run of late at Challenger level, backing it up with a strong round 1 win over Mannarino. I am just a little unsure on the strength of his form lines with respect to the quality of opposition for large aspects of his recent run. He gets Sonego here, whose backhand should match up quite well with the leftie Humbert’s serve and forehand. It’s also taken high quality clay opposition of form to beat Sonego on the clay recently, with Tsitsipas, Struff, Garin and Medvedev beating the Italian on clay this European season.
I have Sonego marked as an ever so slight favourite, so with the drift, I’m happy to bite.
0.75 units Sonego to defeat Humbert at $2.12 at Betfair minus commission/Unibet ($2.15 at Pinnacle)
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