1.75 units Khachanov to defeat Alcaraz at $9.60 at Betfair minus commission ($9 also available at Unibet)
Warning: This won’t be for everyone.
I genuinely make the price on Karen Khachanov here value for a couple of reasons. Let’s quickly break it down.
Khachanov by far has looked his most comfortable here at Roland Garros late in the day/evening, and I think the centre court conditions will also suit him quite well here. It was some incredibly impressive tennis from the Russian to beat Norrie in 4 sets, including 64 winners and 43 unforced errors, and a second serve points won percentage that topped 50%. Conversely, he is looking to attack on the second serve return, winning 66% of second serve returns against Norrie. This tactic will need to continue here, and I do think it is one of the minor question marks in the game of Alcaraz.
I also don’t mind the best of 5 set arena here for Khachanov. I’ve seen him battle for well over 4 hours multiple times in his career, sometimes against the top names, and physically he has held up.
The next part is I don’t think Alcaraz has matched his lead-up form just yet in Paris. He went for 22 winners/25 unforced errors against Londero, 74W/74UE vs Ramos and 24W/26UE against Alcaraz. While he is generating more forced errors from his opponents this year with his bigger frame/power, I do feel he is a little short given the situation and conditions.
An alternate play here is Khachanov to take the first set, however I do see the most value in his moneyline price at present. I prefer to back in Khachanov as an underdog as he can be streaky at times, however this looks to be a value spot for mine, and I am content in backing it even if he goes on to lost 0 1 and 0.
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.