Whilst the longer term form of 2021 hasn’t quite matched her opposition, I do feel Alison Riske is a touch over the odds here today against Roland Garros finallist Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.
As a general rule, I am more inclined to support players on the erratic side when their odds are north of $3-4, as we see here with Alison Riske. I am acutely aware of her form struggles since the tour resumed after the Covid suspension, however it felt for mine as though she has turned a slight corner since the tour returned to the hardcourt. Whilst unsuccessful against Buzarnescu in Tokyo, it was a long three set match and she just couldn’t quite capitalise on the strong start. Since then she has been able to beeat Vandeweghe and Fernandez in straight sets whilst losing to Konjuh, Cirstea and Azarenka. Not the best formlines, but not the worst. The Cincinnati tennis across those two matches was certainly a step in the right direction for mine. There is a reason players are $5+ in these matches and that is due to inconsistency, however I do feel as though she is a touch too long today, especially given the last couple of days for Pavlyuchenkova.
It came down to the last couple of days, however the Russian was finally granted access into the US to play the US Open. Pavlyuchenkova was unable to travel from Montreal to Cincinnati as she did not have her visa granted. Instead of getting time on court in Cincinnati to adjust to the conditions, she went through a “very stressful time” to find her way into the country. She has put together some solid tennis across Tokyo and Montreal, however she has looked a little more comfortable against players who lack the power to pressure her court coverage consistently. With Riske on the aggressive side, I think there is value in opposing the Russian at the shorter price.
I am happy to take anything north of $4.50 for the American here. She is likely to dictate for long periods, and at the price is well and truly worth the……..Riske.
1.25 units Riske to defeat Pavlyuchenkova at $5.20 at Betfair Minus Commission
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