The resurgence of Guido Pella has been nice to see of late. That won’t stop me from opposing him at the game handicap here though.
I think the scoreboard struggle of Frances Tiafoe in round 1 have opened up a bit of value on him at the game handicap. I was anticipating a handicap of 6.5 here, which is a number that I generally like to avoid. Let’s break it down quickly.
Tiafoe is going to enjoy having more time on the ball today after facing Eubanks in round 1. Eubanks plays with a big serve, and his ability to net rush and put pressure on his opposition. It took Tiafoe some time to get used to it in the conditions, however Pella is going to give him a far more consistent look today, in potentially perfect conditions under a roof. I have no issues with Tiafoe playing best of 5, and as mentioned in the outright preview I have him as a genuine threat to Andrey Rublev were they to meet.
Did Pella win, or did Filip Krajinovic lose? After a strong start, it was a significant fadeout from Krajinovic. Krajinovic looked below his best physically, and it showed in the outcome of sets 2-4. Pella was solid and hit a high first serve percentage, however the Krajinovic second serve combined with a high unforced error rate led to a one way traffic outcome after a competitive start.
Tiafoe is a significant step up in opposition in best of 5 set tennis, and I am not sure outside of being a leftie and a different look where the advantages lay for Pella here. I am not going to be drawn into that result over Krajinovic, and will stick with Tiafoe here at the -5.5 games for 2 units.
2 units Tiafoe -5.5 games vs Pella at $1.96 at Topsport ($2.08 at Unibet for those interested)
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