Whilst I may have gone a match early in terms of fading Botic Van De Zandschulp coming off a very high volume of tennis, I think his ultimate loss to Juan Manuel Cerundolo yesterday has now ultimately been overrated.
What does that mean? I think Cerundolo’s straight set win over BVDZ, which included Botic finding himself up a double break in the first set, and a break early in the second before running out of gas, has been overrated and has impacted the odds for the final a little too much here. Whilst he does have an ATP title to his name this year from Cordoba, his form hasn’t returned to that level since that week. Whilst it has been a solid week for Cerundolo, I am not sure he warrants coin flip odds against Tomas Barrios today.
Whilst the road to the final hasn’t been as smooth for Barrios, he has shown his ability to handle a number of pressure situations in the conditions incredibly well. All three of his wins have come in three sets against solid opposition (Nagal, Altmaier, Haase), and in each match he has responded incredibly well to dropping the second set. He should be able to find a way into a number of Cerundolo service games, and looks to be good value at the current odds.
The wider body of European claycourt form, including taking into consideration strength of opponent, leads me to side with Barrios in this one, but just for the 1.5 units.
1.5 units Barrios to defeat Cerundolo at $1.92 at Topsport
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