Madison Keys is back in North America, and looks to be coming up as value here against Shuai Zhang.
Keys can be a tricky player to gauge at times. Her best tennis, which has mostly come in North America over the years, is up there with some of the best tennis on tour. The issue is moreso her ability to sustain that level, and her ability to stay at a level that is close to, if not, 100%. She put together a solid body of work on the grass in both Berlin and Wimbledon, and I like that she has been a little selective with her overall scheduling.
Zhang backed up from Wimbledon by travelling back to the clay in Palermo, where she made the semi final, losing to Danielle Collins. She now pivots to her third surface in a handful of weeks, and whilst she did dominate Emma Raducanu in round 1, I am not sure that win, or the dominance of that win, stacks up a great deal on the hardcourt at present. It was the first win on hardcourt for Zhang for the year, and it will be interesting to see how she stacks up against a power hitter given her current hardcourt form.
They haven’t met on hardcourt since 2016 at the Australian Open, when Zhang had her first Grand Slam breakthrough in reaching the final 8. I was out that match where she defeated Keys, and it was one way traffic for the American until she injured her leg and was barely able to move through the final couple of sets.
The match, like most Keys matches, rests on the racquet of the American. Back in more suited conditions, I am looking for a strong performance from Keys not only today, but for the week. Happy to take Keys here at the -3 game handicap (note: I prefer the -3.5 at the longer odds than the -2.5 if they are your only options).
Suggested Bet:
2 units Keys -3 games vs Zhang at $1.86 at Topsport
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