There may not be enough value for another 3.5 unit selection, however there still appears to be a bit of value in Belinda Bencic in the gold medal match against Marketa Vondrousova.
These two have both put together incredibly impressive weeks, and it is nice to see players who caused big upsets (Vondrousova def. Osaka and Bencic def. Krejcikova) being able to capitalise on their draws opening up to reach the final.
Starting with Bencic, who I think is more suited against Vondrousova than some of the Czech’s opponents this week. Whilst she has had her lapses at times, including some trouble behind her serve, her ability to respond in positions of adversity, down a set to Krejcikova, when Pavlyuchenkova leveled up the quarter final, and on a number of occasions in the semi final against Elena Rybakina. Bencic’s form coming into the tournament wasn’t up there with the top players, however she has certainly been able to thrive in the conditions here and looks as good as I can recall in recent memory. One of the more important shots on the court today will be the Bencic backhand down the line. It has looked solid this week, and with Vondrousova playing her leftie forehand with a lot of topspin, this will give Bencic the chance to pull the trigger on hitting down the line when comfortable.
Vondrousova made her way into the Olympics draw courtesy of her protected ranking, and she has certainly made the most of it. She has served very well, notably behind her first serve, and is another to have handled the conditions well. Her best performance did come with the roof shut (vs Osaka), however she remained aggressive in the semi final against Svitolina when she could have easily gone into her shell. Whilst she was able to control proceedings against Svitolina, that extra power and aggression from Bencic is going to make this a more difficult task for the Czech.
These two met in Miami earlier in the year, with Vondrousova scraping over the line there 4-6 6-4 6-4. It was a game of fine margins, but it is also worth noting that Vondrousova’s first serve percentage of 73.7% was the second highest of her career, and she still just scraped through.
The day off will also have helped Bencic, given her volume of tennis through the single and the doubles. I have her as the favourite, and value to the point of a 2 unit selection here.
2 units Bencic to defeat Vondrousova at $2.20 at Bet365