In 2019 in Tokyo we saw just how much John Millman enjoys the conditions in Tokyo when he made the final of the ATP500 event against Novak Djokovic. He backed that up with an underdog win in round 1 of the Olympics against Musetti. Can he do it again today?
I have him as value on the +3.5 game handicap, particularly on this type of hardcourt against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. Whilst the Spaniard did make a run to the 4th round of the US Open last year, his overall outdoor hardcourt form lags behind some of his work on other surfaces recently. He was struggling fitness wise late in his match with Denis Kudla at Wimbledon, and was the beneficiary of one of the more generous first round match-ups of the Olympics in facing Pedro Sousa. The pressure will be turned right with Millman across the net, especially if the Australian can maintain the level and pressure he showed in round 1, and has shown consistently in these conditions over a significant body of work.
These are the PERFECT conditions for Millman, and I have the odds between these two a lot closer to the coin flip than the current odds suggest. I will split my staking here between the game handicap of +3.5 games and the moneyline.
2 units Millman +3.5 games vs ADF at $1.80 at Bet365
1 unit Millman to defeat ADF at $3 at Bet365