I think this sets up as a perfect storm of sorts in Eastbourne today, with Marketa Vondrousova a big underdog in her meeting with Birmingham champion Ons Jabeur.
Let’s start by discussing Jabeur. She was finally able to break through at WTA level and claim her first career title in Birmingham last week, beating McNally, Fernandez, Potapova, Watson and Kasatkina to claim the title. Not only that, she also spent the week on court in doubles with Ellen Perez, losing the final in a match tiebreak. It is a lot of time on court for Jabeur, as she looks to make the most of the month on a surface that suits her game quite well, so long as she can find her range with the first serve (which still fluctuates).
Her Wimbledon odds have come in with her title last week, and I wouldn’t blame her for having a very small eye on next week, especially given the time she spent on court last week in Birmingham. She is the worthy favourite here, but she just looks to be a little too short today for my liking.
I have the feeling that Vondrousova is actually better on grass than her form may suggest. She was only able to convert break points in 2 of the 4 service games she earned them against eventual title winner Samsonova last week, whilst losing serve every game she faced a break point. It was a game of fine margins, and Samsonova went on to defeat everyone else she faced for the week off the back of that match. I am also happy to look past the 2019 grasscourt form from Vondrousova as well. She started slowly coming off the Roland Garros final, and injured her wrist in the lead-in to Wimbledon, which ended up needing surgery. The easy option is to look at her record on grass and assume she isn’t confident or capable on the surface, but I think there is more to it than meets the eye.
There is value in my opinion in the head to head price on Vondrousova, which I would have closer to $2.50. In what should be a fascinating match, I have her beating the Birmingham champ.
2 units Vondrousova to defeat Jabeur at $3.45 (+245) at Topsport
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