Whilst I love the price on the moneyline, I am finding the odds on the +3.5 games north of $2 as a great main play on this match.
Whilst Andrey Rublev is improving his game in leaps and bounds across the hardcourt and the clay, he is still a little raw on the grass. With the ball staying low and zipping through the court a little more, his ability to play with margin is tested that little bit more. This isn’t a major opposition play on him, however I don’t think he tactically has the defensive game quite worked out for the grass as yet.
Place him up against a very capable grasscourt player in Jordan Thompson, and his odds do look a little short today. This is arguably Thompson’s best surface, and he has looked pretty solid on the grass over the course of the last couple of weeks.
Thompson is very solid on the surface, as shown by his ability to beat Altmaier without facing a break point. You could argue the scoreboard flattered Altmaier in the end looking at the break point save rate. He is solid at the net, and is the better mover on the surface.
Just the small play here, however the +3.5 games with a sprinkle on the moneyline looks a value play in Halle.
1 unit Thompson +3.5 games vs Rublev at $2.21 at Topsport (2.28 at Unibet)
0.5 units Thompson to defeat Rublev at $4.50 at Topsport
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