I was anticipating a handicap in the -5.5 to 6 area for Diego Schwartzman, so to be able to get him at the -4.5 game handicap in this one looks to be solid.
Whilst I was keen for Struff to be able to use his experience to overpower and overwhelm Carlos Alcaraz in the third round, he now becomes the player less experienced at the level in this 4th round meeting with Diego. Confidence is a funny thing, and Schwartzman looks to have been able to turn around his season with a run to the 4th round this week. Whilst the draw has been a little on the softer side, all Diego needed was some wins to turn around his confidence, regardless of the player across the net. He dropped 18 points on serve against Kohslchreiber, whilst winning 49 on the German’s serve, and over 50% on return of the first serve. Kohlschreiber is a solid net player, and he struggled in his appearances at the net, winning 47% of the time. Diego is a player who is able to use angles greater than most in the game, which can make coming to the net a dangerous prospect at times. This does lead to Struff becoming less appealing for today.
This is the second time that Struff has reached the 4th round of a grand slam. Last time, at Roland Garros in 2019, ended with Struff winning 7 games against Novak Djokovic. To this point, through matches against Rublev, Bagnis and Alcaraz, he has overperformed on break point saves at 18/25 saved, and given this match-up perhaps not favouring him to the extent of some others this week, and Schwartzman’s ability to return more balls, use more angles and grind down the German, I have Schwartzman progressing to the quarter final.
I will take Schwartzman at the -4.5 game handicap for 1.5 units.
Suggested Bet
1.5 units Schwartzman -4.5 games vs Struff at $1.83 at Bet365
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