Fading The Fatigued: ATP Madrid Edition

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Whilst the wins in their recent form can wind in their price and look appealing, it can be difficult backing up at the top level coming off a long week. This week, players are backing up off a smaller tournament into a larger tournament, with the Estoril final being a 3 setter as well.

Summary of plays:

1 unit PHH +2.5 games vs ADF at $2.06 at Unibet
1 unit Krajinovic -3.5 games vs Norrie at $1.90 at Bet365
1 unit Fritz to defeat Ramos at $1.82 at Unibet
1 unit Popyrin to defeat Struff at $2.02 at Unibet ($2.16 at Pinnacle)

Whilst there is an extra day between tournaments for semi finallists, it is worth taking a look at their overall schedules as well. The semi-finalists backing up this week to keep an eye on are:

  • Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: faces Pierre Hughes Herbert today as a favourite. Continues to produce erratic form, and is currently slated to be giving up games in this match-up. PHH has a decent record in Madrid, and looks solid through qualifying. Happy to take PHH at the plus games for a unit. BET: 1 unit PHH +2.5 games vs ADF at $2.06 at Unibet.
  • Casper Ruud: faces Felix Auger-Aliassime today at near coin-flip odds. Longer term form leads me to siding with Ruud, however the one-sided loss to Basilashvili last week is cause for short term concern in my opinion – NO BET.

More importantly, the four finalists are all backing up this week:

  • Cameron Norrie: I appear to have been underrating him of late on the clay, however I cannot be supporting him in this instance. Coming off his last final, which was a one-sided loss to Tennys Sandgren in Auckland, Norrie struggled to a straight set loss in round 1 of the Australian Open. That result the other day will stick in his mind for a little while, having given up a decent lead. He also took a MTO in the match, so beware. Prefer the Krajinovic game handicap to the 2-0 set betting, and will take that for a unit. BET: 1 unit Krajinovic -3.5 games vs Norrie at $1.90 at Bet365
  • Albert Ramos: Another coming off a heavy schedule, and winning a title a matter of days ago. I wouldn’t have entertained opposing him against less powerful players, however an attacking Taylor Fritz, who has improved his clay game over the last couple of years, is too good to pass up for a unit at a bookmaker that pays out on retirements. BET: 1 unit Fritz to defeat Ramos at $1.82 at Unibet
  • Jan-Lennard Struff: Coming off a straight set loss at a home final to Nikolaz Basilashvili. It was a significant uptick in form compared to his previous weeks. It is no surprise that he performed above his average effort in almost all key stat areas last week, and I am perhaps a little surprised to see him favourite here against the qualifier in Alexei Popyrin. I will oppose for 1 unit. BET: 1 unit Popyrin to defeat Struff at $2.02 at Unibet ($2.16 at Pinnacle)
  • Nikoloz Basilashvili: Won the title the other day, however I cannot get involved in Benoit Paire matches at the moment. NO BET.