Steve’s Debrief, and ATP Estoril Preview: Moutet vs Shapovalov

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2 earlier plays are now completed. Bouzkova looks to have seriously injured her hand, retiring down 2-6 3-2 to Petra Kvitova, voiding the -5.5 game handicap.

Pedro Martinez took the first set, lost the second set in a tiebreak, took a medical timeout midway through the third set, had a break point for *5-4, saved triple match point for 5-5*, was unable to convert a break point for *6-5, then ended up being broken from 30/0. Quite the rollercoaster.

The results spreadsheet has now been updated for daily previews. A link can be found by clicking here. This will be updated at the time of posting each preview online.

Shapovalov vs Moutet

I remarked on Eat Sleep Tennis that there were a few players that I wasn’t entirely sure as to why they were playing this week. They were Denis Shapovalov, Kei Nishikori and Aslan Karatsev. Nishikori and Karatsev have withdrawn before the tournament began, and Shapovalov has remained.

The reason I made those comments were the ATP scheduling that lays ahead. This is a smaller tournament that comes before back to back ATP Masters 1000 tournaments. Shapovalov mentioned last week that he is struggling with shoulder pain, notably on his serve, and in slightly breezy conditions in Estoril, I don’t see this being completely suited to the Canadian.

Corentin Moutet is a bit of an enigma, and I player I won’t touch too often as a favourite. He responded well in round one when he lost the second set tiebreak to Giron, coming back to take the third and progress. I prefer him on clay against players who can generate the pace, and he did look solid in wins over Evans and Koepfer last week as an underdog. He found the going a little tougher against Schwartzman, with an increase in errors as he felt the need to force the issue more regularly.

That won’t be the case today with Shapovalov on the other end of the court. On what we saw from Shapovalov, a win over Chardy and a one-sided loss to Auger Aliassime, I just cannot justify his price here given his self-confessed injury issues and the schedule that lays ahead. I am taking an aggressive approach here, and will be backing Moutet at the money line for 2 units.

Suggested Bet

2 units Moutet to defeat Shapovalov at $2.63 at Unibet