Recap
Of the 4 plays I liked, I tweeted about 3 and wrote up 1. They went 3-1 overall, and the previewed plays went 0-1.
After failing to convert 7 game point opportunities for 4-4 in the first set, Garin had dropped 4 games on the run. Just when it looked like Garin had found a way back into the set by breaking for 4-4, Tsitsipas took back control to win 6-4 6-3.
ATP Monte Carlo
Goffin vs Evans
First off, congratulations to Dan Evans on what was the biggest win of his career yesterday. He has done David Goffin, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina a huge favour in knocking Novak Djokovic out of the top half of the Monte Carlo draw. It was made more impressive having come from a break down early in the second set. It can be easy to just assume that after losing the first set that Djokovic is just going to ‘flick the switch’ and find another gear or five, however Evans, who has a game that can be considered suitable for clay without the results to back it up to this point in his career, found a way to come back and take the match 7-5.
What has gone under the radar yesterday as a result has been the win of David Goffin over Alexander Zverev. Goffin is the type of player that will take a lot more short term confidence from recent performances, and he has looked to be an entirely different player since splitting the first two sets with Marin Cilic in round 1. He now owns a 15-7 record for his career in Monte Carlo, including a previous run to the semi finals. He didn’t drop serve once against Zverev, whilst only putting 54% of first serves into play. He is back to covering the court as well as he has in recent memory, and looks to be great value today at the -2.5 game handicap.
Evans has done half of the job. It is one thing to beat the world number one, and it is another thing to be able to back that up 24 hours later. Evans was the beneficiary of Djokovic having the worst winners to unforced errors count for the day in Monte Carlo, and based on his form this week, I don’t see Goffin affording him such a luxury for the second day in a row. 45 of the 84 points won by Evans were from Djokovic unforced errors.
I think this is a better clay match-up for Goffin than some of the others this week. The -2.5 game handicap looks a great proposition for today in Monte Carlo.
Suggested Bet
2 units Goffin -2.5 games vs Evans at $1.96 at Unibet