Following the theme of taking the most experienced claycourters in Marbella today, with my support behind Facundo Bagnis to defeat Kwon Soon-Woo and to cover a game handicap I generally avoid like the plague.
I think there is enough of an edge here in what shapes to be more of a grinding match-up to jump in at the -4.5 game handicap. The Argentinian did a fantastic job in getting over the line against Francisco Cerundolo in straight sets in round 1 as a slight underdog. Bagnis had to save a couple of set points in the second, before going on to take the tiebreak comfortably and wrapping up a 6-3 7-6(2) victory. Whilst it could have arguably been more comfortable after leading 4-0 in set 1 and up a break midway through set 2, it is still an impressive win against a very capable clay player.
Kwon on the other hand is not overly proficient on clay, having stumbled his way to a third set tiebreak win over teenager Holger Rune. The win over Rune, ranked 321, is actually the highest ranked win on clay for Kwon in his career. He has 14 matches in his career on clay, and from those I have watched I am not convinced his game is suited to the surface. If Kwon had a stronger serve I would be a little more concerned at taking such a handicap, however I think based on the form of Bagnis on the return of serve, he should be able to find ample opportunities to break the serve of Kwon throughout.
I am happy to take Bagnis at the -4.5 game handicap for 2.5 units. I also like the under 21.5 game total for those who prefer the total.
2.5 units Bagnis -4.5 games vs Kwon at $1.83 at Bet365 (please note $1.84 at Topsport and $2 at Pinnacle)