I have been sitting on this one for a couple of hours now, and I think given the conditions as they are on Rod Laver Arena, I am happy to jump into the underdog price on Shelby Rogers to finish off Day 6.
I think the form around Rogers is a little stronger than Kontaveit, which may sound like a funny thing to say considering it was Kontaveit that claimed a title in the week leading up to the Australian Open. In the faster conditions though I do feel the American is favoured here.
Wins over Ferro, Peterson, Martic, Jones and Danilovic, and a match tiebreak loss to Barty is pretty solid lead-in form. The end of 2020 and start of 2021 is the first solid chunk of time that Rogers has been able to put together a decent run in terms of form and health over recent years, and she is starting to reap the rewards as a result.
Kontaveit is expected to win this one, which puts an added element of pressure on the Estonian’s shoulders. She managed to escape from a battle with Heather Watson in round 2, coming from a set down and reeling off the last 4 games for victory. Outside of the win over Mattek-Sands, Kontaveit has had wins over less powerful players in McHale, Sakkari, Sasnovich and Watson across the last fortnight. In the faster conditions here, Rogers will be a very different look for Kontaveit.
Happy to make a 2 unit selection on Rogers to win as an underdog. I like the +3 games however that is not readily available. Instead I am happy to take money line.
2 units Rogers to defeat Kontaveit at $2.30 at Unibet