Casper has enjoyed a very friendly ride to the third round, however this looks to be a tough test against Radu Albot in the conditions.
An injured Jordan Thompson in round 1 and Tommy Paul struggling in the heat in round 2 has allowed Ruud to progress to the third round. Paul looked great early, but faded quickly in the hot conditions allowing Ruud to take control. Whilst the conditions are on the cooler side today, these courts are still playing quite fast, playing into the hands of Albot more than the Norwegian.
Albot has been able to cause a couple of big upsets on his way through to the third round. After defeating Roberto Bautista Agut in the first round at massive odds, he backed it up again in round 2 against local hope Chris O’Connell, defeating him in straight sets. He is enjoying the faster conditions, winning a high percentage of points behind his first serve and displaying a more consistent effort for longer periods than we have recently become accustomed to from him. His injury at the start of 2020 did make last year difficult, however he looks to have found confidence in both his body and his game this week.
Not sure Albot should be $3.25+ when you look at the performances of both players this week. This is a different look for Ruud in the conditions and I think he can be exploited today. I will be backing Albot to win for 2 units.
2 units Albot to defeat Ruud at $3.50 at Betfair minus commission.