Short and sharp, however the game handicap for Pegula looks enticing based on their meeting last week, and the form of both players over the short to medium term.
Jessica Pegula made a statement in round 2, defeating Sam Stosur 6-0 6-1, backing up her straight set win over Azarenka in fine from. She looks comfortable hitting off both wings, and her confidence continues to grow that she can match it with the best at this level. She should arguably have also beaten Kenin last week, letting a great opportunity slip from up a set and a break. She has responded well here, and I prefer her in the conditions today compared to round 2, which is a scary prospect.
Kristina Mladenovic has improved on her recent form, however, has largely been the beneficiary of a slew of unforced errors from Sakkari and Hibino through the first two rounds. Those two combined for 87 unforced errors, so whilst the form of Kristina is improved, the errors from the other end of the court have certainly helped her through the two rounds.
I am making a 1.5 unit selection on Pegula to win and cover the -4 game handicap. I would play this at -4.5 games if that were available for 1 unit.
1.5 units Pegula -4 games vs Mladenovic at $1.85 (-117) at Topsport