I will keep this one short and sharp. I haven’t been sold on the Dimitrov form of the last fortnight, and across best of 5 sets I am not sure he should be the favourite looking at the larger bodies of work of both players.
Dimitrov was the beneficiary of a deflated Alex Bolt in round 1, who couldn’t break late in set 1, lost the tiebreak, lost the local crowd to the exits, and couldn’t find a way back into the match. Dimitrov’s success over the last fortnight has come against bigger strikers of the ball, and the consistency that he will see from the other end of the court today from PCB is an entirely different look.
Carreno-Busta keeps on finding a way to be underrated at hardcourt grand slams. It is worth remembering he was a set from the final of the US Open last year, and has made the 4th round at Melbourne Park on multiple occasions. Whilst Dimitrov made the semi-final here in 2017, it is a much different Grigor these days. The confidence and belief in his ability to produce the level needed over 5 sets just isn’t what it once was.
When I first went through and analysed this match-up, my first thought was that on the short to medium term sample size, PCB deserves slight favouritism in this one. He is currently an underdog, and at the odds looks to be worth a 1.5 unit selection.
1.5 units PCB to defeat Dimitrov at $2.10 (+110) at Bet365