This looks…complicated.
As I have mentioned in a number of my other previews today, the weather is going to be an extremely important factor to consider. In the heat of the day the temperature will be hitting 30 degrees with humidity around 50%. Reduced time on court will be crucial, especially when you consider how little time players have had on court compared to previous years.
This leads me to Pedro Martinez, who save for a lapse up 5-1 in the first set to Yoshihito Nishioka was dominant, winning 6-7 6-1 6-1 6-1. He won over 50% of points on return of both first and second serves of Nishioka, hitting 48 winners and 28 unforced errors for the match. Whilst he can be a little erratic and go off the boil sometimes (part of the reason I see less value in the game handicap today), he is starting to find his range a little more consistently at this level on all surfaces.
Opposing a 21 year old with limited outdoor hardcourt form to start the year in hot conditions appears to be the logical play here. Ruusuvuori hasn’t looked great to start the year, and nearly made a mess of his match against Monfils, a match in which he started as a clear favourite.
Ruusuvuori is far more suited to the indoor hardcourts, and I just wonder if he has shown enough form to justify this price in the best of 5 set format. After his win in round 1, Emil now owns a 2-3 record in best of 5 set tennis. It is worth noting that his other win came at the US Open last year against Bedene. He won that match in 5 sets, then had to retire from his next match with Casper Ruud.
There are enough factors here to consider a play on Martinez at $2.80+ here. If he can keep his unforced errors low, and turn this into as much of a grind as he can, I think he causes the upset.
Suggested Bet
2 units Martinez to defeat Ruusuvuori at $2.95 (+195) at Unibet