This match is one of many over the next fortnight that will feel like it is part of the changing of the guard. Mona Barthel in my opinion is largely making up the numbers in this field, as she was the beneficiary of arguably the easiest qualifying run in recent memory. You can only beat who is across the net from you, however I am not overly convinced with her form.
Continuing the trend of taking the more consistent player in the conditions, I think Barthel is too erratic for this match-up in these conditions. The win over Birrell isn’t stacking up form wise, and she wasn’t overly competitive against Pegula in a straight set loss. She did earn a number of break point chances however was unable to convert, and looked inconsistent on her own end. Cocciaretto came back from a slow start to beat Lin Zhu (who won 6-1 6-1 earlier today), before falling to Karolina Pliskova. She is still flying under the radar overall, and this looks to be a great spot to focus on the game handicap.
I am happy to move up a game on the handicap to take -4.5 games for the Italian at plus money. I will play this for 1.5 units.
1.5 units Cocciaretto -4.5 games vs Barthel at $2.12 (+112) at Unibet