Perhaps a little too much has been read into Begu’s win over Konta last week? It was one of the longest matches in recent memory on the WTA, clocking in at 3hrs35mins. Begu was solid without being spectacular overall last week, winning three matches in three sets (vs Zheng, Sasnovich and Konta) before falling to Naomi Osaka. It is worth noting that Begu was one of the players that travelled to Adelaide for quarantine, so she was able to adjust to Australia in far better conditions than Nina Stojanovic.
Even with the difference in quarantine, I do feel as though the odds on Stojanovic are far too long in these faster conditions. The Serbian caught Mayar Sherif by surprise last week, winning 6-3 6-2 as a big underdog without facing a break point for the match. When she can find range with her first serve, she is a very tough prospect to break. She will have lapses, however is a player who is quick to rebound and lock back in to the next opportunity. She did struggle a little against Danielle Collins, however the American is a step up on what Stojanovic is facing today.
By no means should Stojanovic be favourite, however $3.75 seems excessive for the match-up. I will place 0.5 units on Stojanovic to win the match, and 1 unit on total games over 19.5. I wouldn’t take this at 20.5 games if that is all that is available.
0.5 units Stojanovic to defeat Begu at $4 (+300) at Bet365
1 unit Stojanovic/Begu total games over 19.5 at $1.83 (-120) at Bet365