It is worth clarifying off the top that this is Kristyna Pliskova and not Karolina Pliskova. She is still a major threat on the WTA, however I think Vera would be preferring to face the left-handed Kristyna.
Zvonareva has made a habit of playing a very patchy schedule over the last couple of years, so I don’t see her being as fazed by the stop-start nature of the tour to begin 2021. Zvonareva got a win under her belt in Abu Dhabi over Hesse, before struggling a touch against a counterpunching style in Svitolina.
This is a far more favourable match-up for Zvonareva, and I am interested in the -3.5 game handicap here. Pliskova hasn’t taken a scalp on outdoor hardcourt since Shenzhen last year against Sabalenka, which fits with my thoughts around Pliskova preferring to enter into a power battle on hardcourts. The more calculated, high-IQ strategic tennis of Zvonareva is going to be a far more difficult task, and given she is likely to be a bit rusty, I don’t think we will see top level serving statistics in this one from the Czech, which she would need to win here.
I wouldn’t get involved at the -4.5 games as Pliskova serving first would lead to 3 service breaks being necessary (3 more than Pliskova achieves). The -3.5 games is worth a play though for a unit.
1 unit Zvonareva -3.5 games vs Pliskova at $1.98 (-102) at Unibet