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I did enjoy the coming out party of sorts from Miomir Kecmanovic over the last 12-18 months, and it looks as though he is a little underrated in the market in his first round match with Stefano Travaglia.
I am seeing -3 games at several bookmakers at the time of writing, and the furthest I would take this is to -3.5 games for the staking of 1 unit. I have too many question marks surrounding Travaglia on outdoor hardcourt to considering him only having a 3-game head start.
When you look through the majority of the hardcourt success that has come the way of the Italian, it has largely been in the indoor conditions, except for a run to the Bengaluru Challenger semi-final in February last year and reaching the Bendigo Challenger in January. The Bendigo run doesn’t carry much weight for me, as it was the week before the Australian Open. Given it is not his strongest surface, and at 29 years of age I wouldn’t be expecting a significant rise in form on what we saw to close last year (including some injury worries). I am happy to oppose him for a unit today.
Kecmanovic made great strides last year and is on the cusp of entering the Top 40 at the age of 21. There is far more upside in his game and considering I have him rated comfortably higher on hardcourt already, this seems like a selection worth making in week 1 of the year. There is the potential for a solid showing from him this week, and I am looking to see him start well with a consistent all-round performance.
1 unit Kecmanovic -3 games vs Travaglia at $1.94 / -106 at Topsport ($1.96 at Pinnacle)
Good luck if following – gamble responsibly.
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